Key Findings
Model ADilution concern validated. Under full-vesting-keep-forever, departed employees hold 95%+ of shares by year 80. Active workers sit on a $104B pool but their per-capita claim is only $26K. The equity structure becomes a pension obligation to former employees.
Model BClean but modest. Active-employment-only dividends avoid dilution entirely, but annual payouts are small: $1,600/employee in 2020 at 5% of net income. Functions more like a profit-sharing bonus than a wealth-building mechanism.
Model CHybrid holds up. When departing employees keep only 25% of vested shares (75% returns to the active pool), per-active-employee value reaches $143K by year 80. This is the structure closest to Delilah's trust model.
The turnover rate is the hinge variable. GE's Welch-era mass layoffs (1981-1985, ~25% annual turnover) accelerated dilution dramatically in Model A. Under Model C, that same period barely moves the needle because forfeited shares recycle.
Workforce contraction amplifies the problem. GE went from 402K employees (1980) to 174K (2020). In a shrinking workforce, existing departed claims stay constant while the active denominator drops. Model C partially self-corrects.
Methodology and Data Sources
GE headcount: Interpolated from known data points (Wikipedia, Macrotrends, Encyclopedia.com). Key anchors: 125K (1940), 170K (1945 WWII peak), 250K (1960), 402K (1980 peak), 340K (2000 GE Capital era), 174K (2020).
Revenue/net income: Known anchors from SEC filings and historical records. Pre-1980 revenue estimated from available growth narratives.
Turnover rates: Era-specific estimates: Organization Man era (1950-65) 10%, Welch restructuring (1981-85) 25%, breakup era (2018+) 28%.
Limitations: Linear interpolation. No shareholder mortality modeling. Tax treatment not modeled. Single equity class assumed.