Federal election spending has tripled in real dollars since 2000. But the cost of winning a competitive state legislative seat remains a fraction of a competitive federal one, and state power delivers the policy outcomes that matter most to working people. The question for labor leaders is not whether to spend, but where a dollar does more.
All figures in 2024 dollars (CPI-adjusted). Presidential cycle years only.
Federal spending (amber/red bars) tripled in real terms: $5.7B to $15.9B. State legislative spending (green bars, amounts in green below years) grew from $1.2B to $2.2B in candidate-raised funds, less than 2x. Green bars understate total state spending: outside money in state legislative races has exploded post-Citizens United (105% growth from 2012-2016 in tracked states, per FollowTheMoney). In competitive state races, IE now equals candidate spending (CFI, 2020). Including outside money, total state legislative spending is likely $2.5-2.7B in 2024, but even doubled, state totals remain dwarfed by federal. Source: FollowTheMoney.org candidate contributions (2000-2016 published reports, 2020-2024 estimated). 2024 derived from $2.6B all-state-candidates total.
What competitive federal races cost in total spending (candidate + party + outside money), and what the same investment could buy at the state level. All figures from the 2022 midterm cycle, the direct precedent for 2026.
Senate: Georgia 2022 total spending from OpenSecrets/AdImpact (candidates $175M + outside $250M+, including runoff). House: AdImpact tracked $770M combined across 33 Cook toss-up races = ~$23M avg per race. Issue One reported $5.3M median candidate-raised (excludes party + outside). State house: WI Democracy Campaign, avg across 8 competitive Assembly races. State senate: $3M estimated from WI (12 races over $1M, SD-17 at $4.5M in 2018), MI (10 of 38 races over $1M in 2018), NC (SD-7 at $3M+ in 2022). PA runs higher ($3.5M state senate avg in 2024). Other battlegrounds run cheaper.
Both federal and state costs have risen 5-10x since 2006. The purchasing power gap has been roughly constant. One Senate seat has always cost the equivalent of 270-390 state house campaigns. This is not a new problem. The answer has been available for 16 years.
| Midterm | Senate | House | St. Senate | St. House | Senate → St. House | House → St. House |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | $47M | $4M | $350K | $150K | 313:1 | 27:1 |
| 2010 | $68M | $6.5M | $500K | $250K | 272:1 | 26:1 |
| 2014 | $124M | $8M | $1M | $400K | 310:1 | 20:1 |
| 2018 | $209M | $15M | $2.5M | $700K | 299:1 | 21:1 |
| 2022 | $425M | $23M | $3M | $1.1M | 386:1 | 21:1 |
State legislatures set minimum wage, public sector collective bargaining rights, right-to-work law, Medicaid expansion, paid leave mandates, workplace safety enforcement, and redistricting rules. A single state trifecta can pass more pro-worker legislation in one session than a federal majority has managed in a decade. The US House, even with a Democratic majority, cannot pass legislation past the Senate filibuster, cannot hold officials accountable through conviction, and cannot deliver policy outcomes that reach workers' lives. The federal investment buys representation. The state investment buys power.
Federal costs are total spending (candidate + party + outside/IE) for the top competitive race per cycle (Senate) or toss-up average (House). Senate sources: OpenSecrets, AdImpact, Brennan Center. House 2022: AdImpact ($770M / 33 toss-ups). House 2006-2018: estimated from OpenSecrets winner costs + outside spending growth. State house costs: WI Democracy Campaign (2018, 2022), MCFN/Bridge Michigan, FollowTheMoney.org national averages extrapolated to battleground states (2006-2014). State senate: WI, MI, NC race-level data. Pre-2018 state costs are softer estimates. Chamber flip data from Ballotpedia/NCSL. Policy outcomes sourced from state legislative records.
Cost per knock and cost per vote are different line items. Cost per knock ($3) is what you pay per door contact attempt. Cost per incremental vote ($40) is what you pay to produce one additional vote through sustained canvassing. Phone banking, once cost-competitive with knocking, now runs $35-60+ per vote due to collapsing contact rates. Campaign phone contact rate sources: Pew Research Center methodological reports (1997-2019), CampaignNow 2024 operational data (6.5% live answer rate). All canvassing figures are for paid/vendor programs, not volunteer.